Vinyl sales data from 2024 shows conflicting trends, raising questions about the format's continued resurgence in the U.S. market.

The RIAA reported a 17% year-over-year increase in vinyl sales value for the first half of 2024. However, Luminate's full-year report indicates a 1% decline in physical album sales volume (excluding independent retail sales), dropping from 56.2 million units in 2023 to 55.6 million in 2024.

This discrepancy stems from Luminate's methodology change for calculating independent retailer sales in 2024. The new model reports:

• 17.3 million vinyl units
• 5.4 million CDs
• 165,000 cassettes

Combined with non-indie sales, the total reaches 78.5 million physical units for 2024. This figure falls significantly below:

• Luminate's 2023 report of 87 million units (8.9% YoY increase)
• RIAA's H1 2024 estimate of 42.5 million units shipped

The data raises three possibilities:

1. Historical physical sales data may have been inflated
2. U.S. vinyl sales could be genuinely declining
3. Some indie retailer sales might not be properly captured under the new methodology

This measurement debate carries significant implications for the music industry, particularly since independent record stores sell substantial quantities of mainstream artists like Taylor Swift. The RIAA's upcoming 2024 annual report may provide additional clarity on these trends.

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