An investor group led by Project Liberty founder Frank McCourt has submitted a formal buyout offer for TikTok's U.S. operations ahead of the January 19th divestment deadline.

The People's Bid for TikTok consortium includes major private equity firms, family offices, and high-net-worth individuals, backed by debt financing from a major U.S. bank. While the exact offer amount remains undisclosed, earlier reports suggested capital commitments of around $20 billion.

Key aspects of the proposal:

• Built on an American-made tech stack
• Operates without TikTok's current algorithm
• Aims to prevent a complete platform ban
• Maintains service for U.S. users

The proposal faces several challenges:

• ByteDance's historical resistance to selling
• Algorithm ownership concerns
• Approaching January 19th deadline
• Regulatory uncertainty

Current outlook:

• Supreme Court appears unsympathetic to TikTok's legal arguments
• Kalshi betting odds show 68% chance of a U.S. ban before May
• Evercore ISI estimates 20-25% chance of an actual ban
• President Biden could grant a 90-day extension
• Potential policy changes with incoming Trump administration

Competitors like Triller are already positioning themselves to capture users if TikTok faces a ban. The situation remains fluid, with multiple possible outcomes depending on regulatory decisions, ByteDance's response, and the success of buyout negotiations.

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